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British Journal of General Practice

Royal College of General Practitioners

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match British Journal of General Practice's content profile, based on 22 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Harmonising UK primary care prescription records for research: A case study in the UK Biobank

Ytsma, C. R.; Torralbo, A.; Fitzpatrick, N. K.; Pietzner, M.; Louloudis, I.; Nguyen, D.; Ansarey, S.; Denaxas, S.

2026-04-22 health informatics 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351274 medRxiv
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Objective The aim of this study was to develop and validate an automated, scalable framework to harmonise fragmented UK primary care prescription records into a research-ready dataset by mapping four diverse medical ontologies to a unified, historically comprehensive reference standard. Materials and Methods We used raw prescription records for consented participants in the UK Biobank, in which participants are uniquely characterized by multiple data modalities. Primary care data were preprocessed by selecting one drug code if multiple were recorded, cleaning codes to match reference presentations, expanding code granularity based on drug descriptions, and updating outdated codes to a single reference version. Harmonisation entailed mapping British National Formulary (BNF) and Read2 codes to dm+d, the universal NHS standard vocabulary for uniquely identifying and prescribing medicines. Harmonised dm+d records were then homogenised to a single concept granularity, the Virtual Medicinal Product (VMP). We validated our methods by creating medication profiles mapping contemporary drug prescribing patterns in 312 physical and mental health conditions. Results We preprocessed 57,659,844 records (100%) from 221,868 participants (100%). Of those, 48,950 records were dropped due to lack of drug code. 7,357,572 records (13%) used multiple ontologies. Most (76%) records were encoded in BNF and most had the code granularity expanded via the drug description (N=28,034,282; 49%). 41,244,315 records (72%) were harmonised to dm+d and 99.98% of these were converted to VMP as a homogeneous dataset. Across 312 diseases, we identified 23,352 disease-drug associations with 237 medications (represented as BNF subparagraphs) that survived statistical correction of which most resembled drug - indication pairs. Conclusion Our methodology converts highly fragmented and raw prescription records with inconsistent data quality into a streamlined, enriched dataset at a single reference, version, and granularity of information. Harmonised prescription records can be easily utilised by researchers to perform large-scale analyses in research.

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Missed Opportunities for Stroke Prevention in Hypertensive Patients: A Retrospective Case-Control Study

Yang, H.; Liu, Y.; Kim, C.; Huang, C.; Sawano, M.; Young, P.; McPadden, J.; Anderson, M.; Burrows, J. S.; Krumholz, H. M.; Brush, J. E.; Lu, Y.

2026-04-22 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351407 medRxiv
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BackgroundHypertension is the leading modifiable risk factor for ischemic stroke, yet the adequacy of preventative hypertension care in routine clinical practice remains suboptimal. Whether gaps in hypertension management represent missed opportunities for stroke prevention remains unclear. ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between hypertension care delivery and the risk of incident ischemic stroke. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective, matched, nested case-control study among adults with hypertension using electronic health record data from a large regional health system (2010-2024). Patients with a first-ever ischemic stroke were matched 1:2 to controls on age, sex, race and ethnicity, and calendar time. Three care metrics were assessed during follow-up: (1) outpatient visits with blood pressure (BP) measurement per year; (2) number of antihypertensive medication ingredients; and (3) medication intensification score. Conditional logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs). ResultsThe study included 13,476 cases and 26,952 matched controls (N = 40,428). Mean (SD) age was 64.8 (12.2) years, 54.1% were female, and mean follow-up was 2,497 (1,308) days. Cases had fewer BP visits per year (median, 2.50 vs. 3.01; p < 0.001), similar number of medication ingredients (2.00 vs 2.00), and lower treatment intensification scores (-0.211 vs - 0.125). In adjusted models, >5 BP visits per year was associated with lower stroke odds (aOR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.51-0.59) compared with [&le;]1 visit. Use of 2-3 medication ingredients (vs 0) was also associated with reduced stroke odds (aOR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.86), whereas >3 ingredients was not significant. The highest quartile of treatment intensification showed the strongest association (aOR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.44-0.51). Findings were consistent across subgroup and sensitivity analyses, including strata defined by baseline SBP and follow-up SBP. ConclusionsGreater engagement in hypertension care was associated with lower odds of ischemic stroke, suggesting that gaps in routine management may represent missed opportunities for prevention.

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Patient perspectives on living with hypertension: Social media listening analysis across predominantly high-income countries

Di Somma, S.; Gervais, R.; Bains, M.; Carter-Williams, S.; Messner, S.; Onsongo, N.

2026-04-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351483 medRxiv
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Background: Chronic conditions such as hypertension can significantly disrupt daily life and emotional wellbeing. The interaction between patients' perceptions, adherence to antihypertensive medication and quality of life (QoL) remains underexplored outside structured clinical settings. Objectives: To capture unprompted patient perspectives and assess whether hypertension affects QoL and to investigate if patient reported experiences are associated with self-reported antihypertensive medication adherence. Methods: Social media listening (SML) study analyzing 86,368 anonymized posts from individuals with hypertension in 12 countries, collected between January 2022 and May 2024. Posts from 11 countries (n=81,368) were analyzed using artificial intelligence-enabled natural language processing. Posts from China (n=5,000) were analyzed separately using a harmonized framework. Quantitative and qualitative methods assessed variations by country, age, and gender, and associations between emotional expression and antihypertensive medication adherence. Results: Across the 11-country core sample, 45% of posts mentioned at least one QoL impact, most commonly worry/anxiety (11%). Impacts varied across countries. Among 8,096 posts with age identified, individuals <40 years reported emotional balance impacts in 28% of posts versus 22% among those aged 40+. Work/Education impacts were mentioned in 17% of posts by those <40 years vs 12% in 40+. Among 7968 posts explicitly referencing adherence, expressed worry was associated with stricter adherence (62% association score), as were structured routines (79% score), home monitoring (77%), dietary changes (77%), and exercise (71%). In contrast, sadness/depression was associated with inconsistent adherence (71%), as were forgetfulness (79%), side effects (73%), and cost/insurance concerns (65%). Conclusions: These results emphasize the importance of the psychological and emotional impact of hypertension, including on adherence to medication regimens, reinforcing the value of a holistic approach to patient care.

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Knowledge, Awareness, and Prescribing Practices Regarding Sugar-Free Paediatric Liquid Medicines Among Healthcare Professionals in Uttarakhand: A Cross-Sectional Study

Jha, K.; Chaudhry, K. K.; Khanduri, N.

2026-04-22 primary care research 10.64898/2026.04.15.26350902 medRxiv
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BackgroundPaediatric liquid medicines (PLMs) routinely contain sucrose to improve palatability, yet their cariogenic potential is well established. Healthcare professionals awareness and prescribing practices regarding sugar-free PLMs have received limited study in India, particularly in Uttarakhand. MethodsA descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among 500 healthcare professionals aged [&ge;]25 years, using a pilot-tested structured questionnaire (Cronbachs = 0.85), administered online and in person across Uttarakhand districts (January-March 2024). After excluding 69 incomplete responses, 431 participants were analysed (response rate: 86.2%), comprising general medicine practitioners (49%, n = 211), paediatricians (27%, n = 116), and dental practitioners (24%, n = 104). Descriptive statistics and chi-square tests were applied (p < 0.05). ResultsPrescription decisions were primarily driven by childs age and weight (58%), cost (40%), and pharmaceutical brand (37%). While 88% recognised PLM sweetness and 67% were aware of pH-dental harm links, only 20% associated PLMs with dental caries. Overall awareness of hidden sugars was 73%. Eighty-three percent knew of sugar-free alternatives (50% local availability), yet 80% found them less palatable and 85% costlier. Only 48% routinely provided oral health advice. A statistically significant association was found between specialty and sugar-free PLM awareness (p = 0.03), with dental practitioners recording the highest awareness (90%). ConclusionsHealthcare professionals demonstrated variable levels of knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding PLMs, with critical gaps in caries recognition (20%) and oral health counselling (48%). Despite high sugar-free PLM awareness, uptake is constrained by perceived cost and palatability barriers. Targeted continuing medical education and policy measures, including sucrose-free labelling promotion, are needed to improve paediatric oral health outcomes in Uttarakhand. KEY MESSAGESO_LIOnly 20% of healthcare professionals in Uttarakhand associated pediatric liquid medicines (PLMs) with dental caries, representing a critical knowledge gap despite 88% recognising their sweetness. C_LIO_LIOverall awareness of hidden sugars in PLMs was 73%, yet only 48% routinely provided post-prescription oral health counsellingsubstantially below international benchmarks. C_LIO_LIEighty-three percent were aware of sugar-free PLM alternatives, but adoption was constrained by perceived inferior palatability (80%) and higher cost ([~]10% premium, cited by 85%). C_LIO_LIDental practitioners demonstrated significantly higher sugar-free PLM awareness than general practitioners and pediatricians (p = 0.03), supporting the case for interprofessional oral health education in medical training. C_LIO_LITargeted continuing medical education (CME) and policy measuresincluding sucrose-free labelling mandates and institutional formulary inclusionare needed to convert awareness into prescribing practice change. C_LI

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Operationalisation of the African Medicines Agency: Retrospective evaluation of the continental centralised pilot procedure - timelines to recommendation and national registration decisions

ISMAIL, A. J.; MOETI, L.; DARKO, D. M.; WALKER, S.; SALEK, S.

2026-04-24 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351547 medRxiv
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Background Regulatory inconsistency across African countries contributes to duplicative scientific assessments, prolonged approval timelines, and delayed access to essential medical products. To inform the operationalisation of the African Medicines Agency (AMA), the African Medicines Regulatory Harmonisation (AMRH) programme implemented Africa's first continental pilot study for the scientific evaluation and listing of human medicinal products. This study evaluates the pilot's procedural performance and examines how continental scientific opinions were translated into national regulatory decisions through reliance mechanisms. Methods and Findings A mixed-methods programme evaluation was conducted using regulatory datasets generated during the pilot study. Quantitative data included assessment timelines, GMP inspection outcomes and national post-listing regulatory actions. Retrospective qualitative thematic analysis was applied to governance documents and National Regulatory Authority (NRA) feedback to identify legal, institutional and procedural determinants influencing uptake. Of 64 expressions of interest, 24 products progressed to full evaluation and 12 received positive continental scientific opinions. Ten met the predefined performance target of [&le;]210 working days. Twenty-four GMP inspections identified no critical deficiencies and aligned with global regulatory benchmarks. National uptake demonstrated active reliance: full reliance (continental opinion as primary basis for national approval) for 7 products (58%); sequential reliance (continental assessment supplemented with targeted national queries) for 3 products (25%); and supplemented national review (separate national assessment undertaken) for 2 products (17%). Products with broader market strategies achieved registration in up to 23 African countries within a median of 77 working days post-listing. Variability in uptake reflected national legal authority, administrative requirements, and applicant submission strategies Conclusions The pilot study demonstrates the feasibility of a continent-wide regulatory assessment mechanism capable of producing trusted scientific outputs and enabling reliance-based national decision-making in Africa. While reliance was widely applied, heterogeneity in national procedures and administrative sequencing affected time to national registration. Findings provide empirical evidence to inform the AMA scale-up, highlighting the need for harmonised reliance pathways, streamlined administrative processes, and coordinated digital regulatory infrastructure.

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Assessing the efficacy of behaviourally informed invitation messaging in increasing attendance at the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check: A randomised experimental study

Tan, X.; Danka, M. N.; Urbanski, S.; Kitsawat, P.; McElvaney, T. J.; Jundi, S.; Porter, L.; Gericke, C.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350693 medRxiv
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Background: Lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality through early detection, but uptake of the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check (TLHC) programme remains low. Behaviourally informed invitation messages have been proposed as a low-cost approach to increase attendance, but evidence of their effectiveness in lung cancer screening is mixed. Few intervention studies used evidence-based behaviour change frameworks, and rarely tailored invitation strategies to empirically identified barriers and enablers. Methods: In an online experiment, 3,274 adults aged 55-74 years and with a history of smoking were randomised to see one of four behaviourally informed invitation messages or a control message. Participants then rated their intention to attend a TLHC appointment, and selected barriers and enablers to attending from a pre-defined list, which were classified according to the Theoretical Domains Framework. Invitation messages were mapped to Behaviour Change Techniques using the Theory and Techniques Tool. Message conditions were compared on intention to attend TLHC using bootstrapped ANOVA followed by pairwise comparisons. Exploratory counterfactual mediation analyses examined the role of fear in intention to attend. Results: Behaviourally informed invitation messages did not meaningfully increase intention to attend TLHC compared with the control message. While a GP-endorsed message showed a small potential benefit relative to the other conditions, this finding was not robust after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Participants most frequently reported barriers related to Emotion (particularly fear), Social Influence, and Knowledge, while Beliefs about Consequences emerged as the primary enabler of attendance. Only around half of reported barriers and enablers were addressed by the invitation messages. Exploratory analyses found that fear was associated with lower intention to attend a TLHC appointment, yet none of the behaviourally informed messages appeared to reduce fear compared to the control message. Conclusions: Improving lung cancer screening uptake will likely require invitation messages that directly address emotional concerns, particularly fear, alongside credible recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of systematically aligning invitation message content with empirically identified behavioural influences when designing scalable interventions to improve lung cancer screening uptake.

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Estimation of cancer cases in transgender and gender diverse people in England

Pasin, C.; Jackson, S. S.; Thynne, L.-E.; McWade, B.; Westerman, T.; Ball, R.; Kavanagh, J.; O'Callaghan, S.; Ring, K.; Orkin, C.; Berner, A. M.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351378 medRxiv
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ObjectivesTo estimate current, and 5- and 10-year projected, number of cases of cancer per year in transgender and gender diverse (TGD) people in England, overall and by tumour type, accounting for uptake of gender affirming care (GAC). DesignPopulation-based epidemiological modelling study using an age-stratified Monte Carlo simulations approach and the NORDPRED method for predictions. SettingModels estimating cancer case numbers for TGD people in England based on publicly available 2023 cancer surveillance data and survey-based 2025 GAC access, and predicted at 5 and 10 years hence. ParticipantsTGD people aged 15 years and above. Main outcome measuresPrimary cancer cases per year overall, by gender, age group, tumour type, and current and planned GAC. ResultsThe estimated TGD population size in England is 441547 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 429207- 452890). Total cases per year of cancer in TGD people is expected to be 966 (95% UI 882-1069) excluding non-melanoma skin. Most cases are expected to occur in people aged 60-64. The top 5 expected cancers in TGD people are breast (19%, n = 187, 95% UI 149-241), colorectal (12%, n = 117, 95% UI 106-129), lung (11%, n = 108, 95% UI 96-122), melanoma (7.1%, n = 69, 95% UI 64-74) and urinary (6.2%, n = 60, 95% UI 54-67). Total cases of cancer in TGD people are estimated to be 1740 (95% UI 1584-1934) in 5 years and 2258 (95% UI 2066-2507) in 10 years (excluding non-melanoma skin). If TGD people were able to access their planned level of GAC, this would reduce these figures to 1555 (95% CI 1386-1766) and 2012 (95% CI 1797-2282) respectively. ConclusionsThis study provides prediction of cancer cases in TGD people in England, supporting the planning of service provision and training. This is vital, as with increasing disclosure, and long wait times for GAC, cancer cases in TGD people are predicted to increase. Summary BoxesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSThe annual number of cases of cancer in transgender and gender diverse (TGD) people in England is currently unknown as gender incongruence is not collected as part of the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. Some gender-affirming care (GAC) interventions are known to modulate cancer risk. Use of testosterone and chest reconstruction for transmasculine people is known to reduce their incidence of breast cancer compared to cisgender women. Use of oestradiol alongside medical or surgical androgen suppression has been shown to reduce the incidence of prostate cancer in transfeminine people while increasing their risk of breast cancer, compared to cisgender men. What this study addsThis study found that there are likely to be approximately 966 cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin) in TGD people per year in the UK. Though total annual cases of cancer in TGD people are expected to be 2258 in 10 years, improved access to gender-affirming care could reduce total cases to 2012 (a 11% reduction). These figures provide additional justification for funding to improve access to GAC via the National Health Service (NHS), as well as for training on the oncological needs of this population.

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BRIDGE: a barrier-informed Bayesian Risk prediction model for risk IDentification, trajectory Grouping, and profiling of non-adherencE to cardioprotective medicines in primary care

Koh, H. J. W.; Trin, C.; Ademi, Z.; Zomer, E.; Berkovic, D.; Cataldo Miranda, P.; Gibson, B.; Bell, J. S.; Ilomaki, J.; Liew, D.; Reid, C.; Lybrand, S.; Gasevic, D.; Earnest, A.; Gasevic, D.; Talic, S.

2026-04-22 pharmacology and therapeutics 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351387 medRxiv
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BackgroundNon-adherence to lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) affects up to half of patients and contributes substantially to preventable cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Existing measures, such as the proportion of days covered, provide cross-sectional summaries but fail to capture the dynamic patterns of adherence over time. Although group-based trajectory modelling identifies distinct longitudinal adherence patterns, no approach currently predicts trajectory membership prospectively while incorporating patient-reported barriers. We developed BRIDGE, a barrier-informed Bayesian model to predict adherence trajectories and identify their underlying drivers. MethodsBRIDGE incorporates patient-reported barriers as structured prior information within a Bayesian framework for adherence-trajectory prediction. The model was designed not only to estimate which patients are likely to follow different adherence trajectories, but also to generate clinically interpretable probability estimates that help explain why those trajectories may arise and what modifiable factors may be most relevant for intervention. ResultsBRIDGE achieved a macro AUROC of 0.809 (95% CI 0.806 to 0.813), comparable to random forest (0.815 (95% CI 0.812 to 0.819)) and XGBoost (0.821 (95% CI 0.818 to 0.824)), two widely used machine-learning benchmarks for structured clinical prediction. Calibration was superior to random forest (Brier score 0.530 vs 0.545; ), and performance was stable across six independent training runs (AUROC SD = 0.003). Incorporating barrier-informed priors improved accuracy by 3.5% and calibration by 5.5% compared to flat priors, showing that incorporation of patient-reported barriers added value beyond electronic medical record data alone. Four clinically distinct adherence trajectories were identified: gradual decline associated with treatment deprioritisation amid polypharmacy (10.4%), early discontinuation linked to asymptomatic risk dismissal (40.5%), rapid decline associated with intolerance (28.8%), and persistent adherence (20.2%). Counterfactual analysis identified trajectory-specific intervention levers. ConclusionsBRIDGE provides accurate and well-calibrated prediction of adherence trajectories while offering clinically actionable insights into their underlying drivers. By integrating patient-reported barriers with routine clinical data, the model supports targeted, mechanism-informed interventions at the point of prescribing to improve adherence to cardioprotective therapies. FundingMRFF CVD Mission Grant 2017451 Evidence before this studyWe searched PubMed and Scopus from database inception to December 2025 using the terms "medication adherence", "trajectory", "prediction model", "Bayesian", "lipid-lowering therapy", and "barriers", with no language restrictions. Group-based trajectory modelling has consistently identified three to five adherence patterns across cardiovascular cohorts; however, these applications have been descriptive rather than predictive. Machine-learning models for adherence prediction achieve moderate discrimination but treat adherence as a binary or continuous outcome, thereby overlooking the clinically meaningful heterogeneity captured by trajectory approaches. One prior study applied a Bayesian dynamic linear model to examine adherence-outcome associations, but it did not predict adherence trajectories or incorporate patient-reported barriers. To our knowledge, no published model integrates patient-reported barriers into trajectory prediction. Added value of this studyBRIDGE is, to our knowledge, the first model to incorporate patient-reported adherence barriers as hierarchical domain-informed priors within a Bayesian framework for trajectory prediction. Using 108 predictors derived from routine electronic medical records, the model achieves discrimination comparable to state-of-the-art machine-learning approaches while additionally providing uncertainty quantification, barrier-level interpretability, and counterfactual insights to inform intervention strategies. The identified trajectories differed not only in adherence level but also in switching behaviour, drug-class evolution, and medication burden, suggesting distinct underlying mechanisms of non-adherence that may require tailored clinical responses. Implications of all the available evidenceEach adherence trajectory implies a distinct intervention target: asymptomatic risk communication for early discontinuers (40.5% of patients), proactive tolerability management for rapid decliners, medication simplification for patients with gradual decline associated with polypharmacy, and maintenance support for persistent adherers. By integrating routinely collected clinical data with patient-reported barriers, BRIDGE can be deployed within existing primary care EMR infrastructure to generate actionable, trajectory and patient--specific recommendations at the point of prescribing, helping to bridge the gap between adherence measurement and targeted adherence management.

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The Acceptability and Impact of the Community-Based Blood Pressure Group pilot intervention in Zimbabwe.

Mhino, F. M.; Ndanga, A.; Chivandire, T.; Sekanevana, C.; Mpandaguta, C. E.; Mwanza, T.; Mutengerere, A.; Scott, S.; Chimberengwa, P.; Dixon, J.; Ndhlovu, C. E.; Seeley, J.; Chingono, R. M. S.; Sabapathy, K.

2026-04-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351307 medRxiv
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IntroductionOver one billion people worldwide have hypertension. In Zimbabwe, prevalence is an estimated 38%, surpassing the global average of 34%, and >50% of hypertensives are undiagnosed. The Community BP groups (Com-BP) study examined whether community groups of people living with hypertension, provided with BP machines and led by trained Facilitators could improve awareness, screening and support for those diagnosed with hypertension, to help blood pressure (BP) control. We present findings from the quantitative evaluation of the Com-BP pilot intervention. MethodsThe acceptability of the Com-BP intervention, its potential effectiveness in improving knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) and in reducing BP among hypertensive adults in Zimbabwe, was evaluated. Cross-sectional surveys using standardised questionnaires, and BP and Body Mass Index (BMI) assessments, were done at the start and end of the pilot intervention. Statistical evidence of difference between baseline and follow-up was examined using Wilcoxon signed-rank test for continuous data and McNemars test for categorical data. ResultsFourteen groups (seven urban and seven rural) were formed and 151 participants joined over a median of 5months. Retention in the groups was 97.9% (137/140 recruited at baseline), with approximately equal numbers from the urban and rural sites. Median age at baseline was 54 years (IQR 45-66y; min-max 30-92y) and the majority (79%, n=108) were female. Most participants (82.5%, n=113) rated their experience of the group sessions as excellent. The proportions of participants with changes in KAP from baseline to endline were as follows: 45.3% (n=62) to 81.0% (n=111) (p=0.004) able to identify at least two pre-disposing factors for hypertension; 65.0% (n=89) to 77.4% (n=106) (p=0.02) reporting [&ge;]1day of vigorous physical activity/week; 28.5% (n=39) to 13.9% (n=19) (p=0.001) reporting salt added to meals at the table. There was no statistical evidence of any difference in medication adherence, p=0.06. The proportion of participants with uncontrolled hypertension was 58.1% (n=79) at baseline and reduced to 31.8% (n=43) at follow-up (p<0.001). DiscussionCommunity groups for improving awareness, detection and support are acceptable and led to improvements in self-reported KAP and prevalence of uncontrolled BP. Further research on the sustainability and impact of the intervention is required.

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Design and preliminary safety validation of a hybrid deterministic-AI triage system for multilingual primary healthcare: a WhatsApp-based vignette study in South Africa

Nkosi-Mjadu, B. E.

2026-04-22 health informatics 10.64898/2026.04.21.26349781 medRxiv
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BackgroundSouth Africas public healthcare system serves most of the population through approximately 3,900 primary healthcare clinics characterised by long waiting times and high volumes of repeat-prescription visits. No published pre-arrival digital triage system operates across all 11 official South African languages while aligning with the South African Triage Scale (SATS). This paper reports the design and preliminary safety validation of BIZUSIZO, a hybrid deterministic-AI WhatsApp triage system. MethodsBIZUSIZO delivers SATS-aligned triage via WhatsApp, combining AI-assisted free-text classification (Claude Haiku 4.5) with a Deterministic Clinical Safety Layer (DCSL) that overrides AI output for 53 clinical discriminator categories (14 RED, 19 ORANGE, 20 YELLOW) coded in all 11 official languages and independent of AI availability. A five-domain risk factor assessment can only upgrade triage level. One hundred and twenty clinical vignettes in patient language (English, isiZulu, isiXhosa, Afrikaans; 30 per language) were scored against a developer-assigned gold standard with independent blinded nurse review. A 121-vignette multilingual DCSL safety consistency check across all 11 languages and a 220-call post-hoc framing sensitivity evaluation (110 paired vignettes) were also conducted. ResultsUnder-triage was 3.3% (4/120; 95% CI: 0.9%-8.3%) with no RED under-triage; exact concordance was 80.0% (96/120) and quadratic weighted kappa 0.891 (95% CI: 0.827-0.932). One two-level under-triage was observed on a non-RED presentation (V072, isiXhosa burns vignette, ORANGEGREEN); one two-level over-triage was observed (V054, isiZulu deep laceration, YELLOWRED). In the framing sensitivity evaluation, AI-only classification achieved 50.9% RED invariance under adversarial framing; full-pipeline classification achieved 95.0% in four validated languages, with the DCSL rescuing 18 of 23 AI drift cases. ConclusionsA hybrid deterministic-AI triage system with DCSL-based emergency detection achieved zero RED under-triage and consistent RED detection across all 11 official languages. The 16.7% over-triage rate falls within published South African SATS ranges (13.1-49%). A single two-level under-triage event was observed on an isiXhosa burns vignette (ORANGEGREEN) and is discussed in Limitations. Findings are preliminary; prospective validation against independent nurse triage is the necessary next step.

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Semaglutide Initiation and Treatment Duration On Suicidality Risk in US Veterans With Type 2 Diabetes

Maldonado, A.; Heberer, K.; Lynch, J.; Cogill, S. B.; Nallamshetty, S.; Chen, Y.; Shih, M.-C.; Bress, A. P.; Lee, J.

2026-04-20 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351118 medRxiv
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ImportanceSemaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), is a highly effective medication to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. However, concerns about potential suicidality persist, creating clinical uncertainty about its neuropsychiatric safety. ObjectiveTo assess risks of suicidality after initiating semaglutide compared to initiating SGLT2i and by duration of continuous semaglutide treatment. DesignActive-comparator, new-user target trial emulation to estimate inverse probability-weighted marginal cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). For duration-of-treatment analyses, we used clone-censor-weight methods to estimate exposure-adjusted effects. SettingVeterans Health Administration. ParticipantsU.S. Veterans with type 2 diabetes receiving care from March 1, 2018 to September 1, 2025. ExposureInitiation of semaglutide vs SGLT2i; duration of semaglutide use ([&le;]6, 7-12, >12 months). OutcomesIncident suicidal ideation; suicide attempt or death; and a composite outcome. ResultsA total of 102,361 Veterans met inclusion criteria, including 11,478 new initiators of semaglutide and 90,883 new initiators of an SGLT2i. After overlap weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced between treatment groups (mean [SD] age, 60.1 [11.7] years; BMI, 37.8 [6.8] kg/m2; hemoglobin A1c, 7.0% [1.4]; 85.5% male; 61.9% non-Hispanic White). During a median follow-up of 2.2 years, 9077 incident suicidal ideation events and 696 suicide attempts or deaths occurred. The incidence rate of suicidal ideation was 56.3 and 37.7 per 1000 person-years among semaglutide initiators and SGLT2i initiators, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93-1.06; P = 0.86). For suicide attempts or deaths, the incidence rates were 4.30 and 2.64 per 1000 person-years, respectively (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.84-1.31; P = .86). In adherence-adjusted analyses, sustained semaglutide treatment for more than 12 months, compared with 6 or fewer months, was associated with a 74% lower risk of suicide attempts or deaths (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.14-0.54; P<.001). ConclusionAmong U.S. Veterans with type 2 diabetes, initiators of semaglutide were not observed to have an increased risk of suicidality compared with initiators of SGLT2i. Those with longer semaglutide treatment (beyond 12 months) had decreased risk of suicide attempt or death, suggesting longer term treatment is safe and may protect against for those outcomes.

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Group A Streptococcus Molecular Point of Care testing in a Paediatric Emergency Department

Mills, E. A.; Bingham, R.; Nijman, R. G.; Sriskandan, S.

2026-04-22 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351279 medRxiv
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BackgroundAn upsurge in Streptococcus pyogenes infections 2022-2023 highlighted potential benefits of point-of-care tests (POCT) to support clinical pathways, prevent outbreaks, and optimise antibiotic use. ObjectivesWe conducted a pilot research study in a west London paediatric emergency department (ED) to determine whether a molecular POCT had potential to alter management in children who were also having a conventional throat swab taken for culture. MethodsChildren <16 years presenting to ED who had a throat swab requested by a clinician were invited to have a second swab taken for research purposes only. Clinical management was unaffected by the research swab result, which was processed using a molecular POCT that was not approved for use in the host NHS Trust. ResultsPrevalence of streptococcal infection was low during the study (May 2023-June 2025); swab positivity in symptomatic children was 12.8% (6/47). Overall, 38/49 (77.6%) participants who had throat swabs received antibiotics. Of those children recommended to receive antibiotics, 29/38 (76.3%) had a negative POCT. Mean time to reporting of positive throat swab culture results was 3.67 days (range 3-5 days) leading to occasional delay in treatment, although POCT identified positive results within minutes. ConclusionAntibiotic use was frequent and could be avoided or stopped by use of a rule out POCT in over three-quarters of children in the ED, if suspicion of S. pyogenes is the main driver for prescribing. POCT were easy to process and produced immediate results compared with culture, in theory enabling timely decision-making and avoiding treatment delay.

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A rights-based intervention integrating social work and ophthalmic care for people experiencing or at risk of homelessness

Hassani, A.; Pecar, K.; Soliman, M.; Bunyon, P.; Ellinger, C.; Tulysewskid, G.; Croft, J.; Carillo, C.; Wewegama, G.; du Plessis-Schneider, S.; Estevez, J. J.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.22.26351525 medRxiv
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Background Individuals experiencing or at risk of homelessness face substantial barriers to preventive eye care that are poorly addressed by standard service models. Interdisciplinary optometry-social work collaboration offers a rights-based approach to improving engagement and continuity of care. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study was conducted between February and August 2024 at a multidisciplinary community centre. Clients experiencing or at risk of homelessness received integrated optometry and social work assessment and were prioritised as high, medium, or low based on combined clinical and social risk. Social work follow-up was guided by the Triple Mandate and W-Questions framework. Quantitative data were summarised using mean (SD), median [IQR], or n (%). Qualitative case notes were analysed using content analysis with inductive coding and secondary review for consistency. Results A total of 165 clients had priority categories coded (high: 68; medium: 47; low: 154). Demographic data were available for 132 clients (60% male; mean age 49.5 years [SD 16]); 27% had not completed high school, 89% reported weekly income below AUD 1000, and 28% had vision impairment. Two hundred forty-five case-note entries were consolidated into 146 unique records. SMS (46%) and phone calls (38%) were the most documented contact methods, although only 21% of calls were answered; missed calls (13%) and disconnected numbers (7%) were common. Multi-modal contact was more frequently documented for higher-priority clients. Appointment assistance was the most recorded facilitator (71%), while rights-based supports, including interpreter and transport assistance, were infrequently documented (<=5%). Qualitative analysis identified unstable communication, reliance on informal supports, and service fragmentation as key influences on recall outcomes. Conclusion This study supports an interdisciplinary, rights-based optometry-social work model to address barriers to preventive eye care among people experiencing or at risk of homelessness. Embedding structured handovers and tiered recall processes within community-based services may strengthen continuity and accountability for high-priority clients. Future implementation should evaluate outcomes related to equity of reach, service integration, and sustained engagement in care.

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Predicting clozapine initiation among patients with schizophrenia via machine learning trained on electronic health record data

Perfalk, E.; Damgaard, J. G.; Danielsen, A. A.; Ostergaard, S. D.

2026-04-20 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351083 medRxiv
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Background and HypothesisClozapine is the only medication with proven efficacy for treatment-resistant schizophrenia, yet many patients experience delays of several years before initiation. Our aim was to develop and validate a dynamic prediction model for clozapine initiation among patients with schizophrenia trained solely on electronic health record (EHR) data from routine clinical practice. Study DesignEHR data from all adults ([&ge;] 18 years) with a schizophrenia (ICD10: F20) or schizoaffective disorder (ICD10: F25) diagnosis who had been in contact with the Psychiatric Services of the Central Denmark Region between 1 January 2013 and 1 June 2024 were retrieved. 179 structured predictors were engineered (covering, e.g.,diagnoses, medications, coercive measures) and 750 predictors derived from clinical notes. At every psychiatric hospital visit, we predicted if an incident clozapine prescription occured within the next 365 days. XGBoost and logistic regression models were trained on 85% of the data with 5-fold stratified cross-validation. Performance was evaluated on the remaining 15% of the data (held out) using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Study ResultsThe training/test set comprised of 194,234/35,527 hospital visits, distributed on 4928/878 unique patients. In the test set, the best XGBoost model achieved an AUROC of 0.81, sensitivity of 32%, positive predictive value of 23% at a 7.5% predicted positive rate. ConclusionsA dynamic prediction model based solely on EHR data predicts clozapine initiation with high discrimination. If implemented as a clinical decision support tool, this model may guide clinicians towards more timely initiation of clozapine treatment.

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Addition of Bupropion or Varenicline to Nicotine Replacement Therapy After Acute Coronary Syndrome: A Propensity-Matched Real-World Analysis

Qadeer, A.; Gohar, N.; Maniyar, P.; Shafi, N.; Juarez, L. M.; Mortada, I.; Pack, Q. R.; Jneid, H.; Gaalema, D. E.

2026-04-23 cardiovascular medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351432 medRxiv
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Introduction: Smoking cessation after acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a Class I recommendation, yet prescription pharmacotherapy use remains low and its real-world cardiovascular effectiveness when added to nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) is poorly characterized. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the TriNetX US Collaborative Network (67 healthcare organizations). Adults hospitalized with ACS who received NRT within one month, serving as a proxy for active smoking status, were identified. Two co-primary propensity-matched (1:1, 50 covariates, caliper 0.10 SD) comparisons evaluated bupropion + NRT and varenicline + NRT individually versus NRT alone; a supportive analysis evaluated combined pharmacotherapy versus NRT alone. All-cause mortality was the primary endpoint. Secondary outcomes included MACE, heart failure exacerbations, major bleeding, TIA/stroke, emergency rehospitalizations, and cardiac rehabilitation utilization, assessed at 6 months and 1 year via Kaplan-Meier analysis. Hazard ratios (HRs) greater than 1.0 indicate higher hazard in the NRT-only group. Results: After matching, the combined analysis comprised 8,574 pairs, the bupropion analysis 4,654 pairs, and the varenicline analysis 2,126 pairs. At 1 year, the combined pharmacotherapy group had significantly lower all-cause mortality (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.16-1.37), MACE (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.12-1.21), heart failure exacerbations (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08-1.25), major bleeding (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08-1.28), and greater cardiac rehabilitation utilization (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74-0.92; all p < 0.001). TIA/stroke did not differ significantly. Six-month results were consistent. Both varenicline and bupropion individually showed lower mortality and MACE. A urinary tract infection falsification endpoint showed no between-group differences, supporting matching validity. The pharmacotherapy group had higher rates of new-onset depression, driven predominantly by bupropion recipients. Conclusions: In this propensity-matched real-world analysis, adding prescription smoking cessation pharmacotherapy to NRT after ACS was associated with lower mortality and fewer adverse cardiovascular events, supporting broader integration into post-ACS care pathways.

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Evolving concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic: A content analysis of free-text reports from the UK COVID-19 Public Experiences (COPE) study cohort over a two-year period

Phillips, R.; Wood, F.; Torrens-Burton, A.; Glennan, C.; Sellars, P.; Lowe, S.; Caffoor, A.; Hallingberg, B.; Gillespie, D.; Shepherd, V.; Poortinga, W.; Wahl-Jorgensen, K.; Williams, D.

2026-04-19 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351013 medRxiv
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Objectives Concerns about COVID-19 were a key driver of infection-prevention behaviour during the pandemic. The aim of this study was to gain an in-depth longitudinal understanding of the type and frequency of concerns experienced throughout the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Design Content analysis of qualitative descriptions provided in a prospective longitudinal online survey as part of the COVID-19 UK Public Experiences (COPE) Study. Method At baseline (March/April 2020), when the UK entered its first national lockdown, 11,113 adults completed the COPE survey. Follow-up surveys were conducted at 3, 12, 18 and 24 months. Participants were recruited via the HealthWise Wales research registry and social media. Baseline surveys collected demographic and health data, and all waves included an open-ended question about COVID-19 concerns. Content analysis was used to identify the type and frequency of concerns at each time point. Results A total of 41,564 open-text responses were coded into six categories: personal harm (n=16,353), harm to others (n=11,464), social/economic impact (n=6,433), preventing transmission (n=4,843), government/media (n=1,048), and general concerns (n=1,423). The proportion of respondents reporting any concern declined from 75.3% at baseline to 65.8% at 24 months. Over time, concerns about personal harm increased (baseline 41.8% vs. 24-months 52.7%) whereas concerns about harm to others decreased (baseline 48.5% vs. 24-months 28.6%). Concerns about harm were also expressed in relation to clinical vulnerability, lack of trust in government/media, and perceived lack of adherence by others. These were balanced against concerns about wider social and economic impacts of restrictions. Conclusions Public concerns about COVID-19 evolved substantially over the first two years of the pandemic, reflecting changing perceptions of risk and responsibility. Monitoring concerns longitudinally is vital to help guide effective communication and behavioural interventions during future pandemics.

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Steroid-Responsiveness in TBX4-Associated Pulmonary Hypertension and Interstitial Lung Disease

Morgan, C.; Calder, A.; Brugha, R.; Quyam, S.; Aurora, P.; McGovern, E.; Bush, A.; Moledina, S.

2026-04-20 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.04.19.26350630 medRxiv
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BackgroundTBX4 variants are a recognised cause of paediatric pulmonary hypertension (PH), often associated with interstitial lung disease (ILD). Evidence for ILD-directed therapy in this group is lacking. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study of children ([&le;]18 years) with TBX4-associated PH at a national centre (2001-2025). ILD was defined using ChILD-EU criteria. Patients treated with pulsed intravenous methylprednisolone were assessed for response using ChILD-EU categories. Secondary outcomes included respiratory severity score (RSS), functional class (FC), echocardiographic measures, and NT-proBNP. ResultsOf 21 children, 11 (52%) had ILD; 9 received corticosteroids. Median age at treatment was 0.8 years. A clear or best response occurred in 7/9 (78%). RSS improved in 6/9 (p=0.02), with all children on respiratory support showing partial or complete weaning. Functional class improved in all with FC III/IV at baseline (p=0.02). Right ventricular function improved (TAPSE z-score +1.65, p=0.04), and elevated NT-proBNP normalised. Key clinical milestones included ECMO weaning, transplant delisting, and discontinuation of prostacyclin therapy. No significant adverse effects were observed. Untreated children showed no early improvement. ConclusionsCorticosteroids were associated with meaningful improvements in respiratory and PH outcomes in TBX4-associated PH with ILD. Prospective evaluation is warranted.

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Data Resource Profile: EST-Health-30

Reisberg, S.; Oja, M.; Mooses, K.; Tamm, S.; Sild, A.; Talvik, H.-A.; Laur, S.; Kolde, R.; Vilo, J.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351087 medRxiv
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Background: The increasing availability of routinely collected health data offers new opportunities for population-level research, yet access to comprehensive, linked, and standardised datasets remains limited. We describe EST-Health-30, a large-scale, population-representative health data resource from Estonia. Methods: EST-Health-30 comprises a random 30% sample of the Estonian population (~500,000 individuals), with longitudinal data from 2012 to 2024 and annual updates planned through 2026. Individual-level records are linked across five nationwide databases, including electronic health records, health insurance claims, prescription data, cancer registry, and cause of death records. A privacy-preserving hashing approach ensures consistent cohort inclusion over time while maintaining pseudonymisation. All data are harmonised to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (version 5.4) using international standard vocabularies. Data quality was assessed using established OMOP-based validation frameworks. Results: The dataset contains rich multimodal information on diagnoses, procedures, laboratory measurements, prescriptions, free-text clinical notes, healthcare utilisation, and costs, with high population coverage and longitudinal depth. Data quality assessment showed high completeness and consistency, with 99.2% of applicable checks passing. The age-sex distribution closely reflects the national population, supporting representativeness, though coverage is marginally below the target 30% (29.2%), primarily attributable to recent immigrants without health system contact. The dataset enables construction of detailed clinical cohorts, analysis of disease trajectories, and evaluation of healthcare utilisation and outcomes across the life course. Conclusions: EST-Health-30 is a comprehensive, standardised, and population-representative real-world data resource that supports epidemiological, clinical, and methodological research. Its alignment with the OMOP CDM facilitates reproducible analytics and participation in international federated research networks, while secure access infrastructure ensures compliance with data protection regulations.

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A systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy and safety of pharmacological treatments for obesity in adults: 2026 Update

Ciudin Mihai, A.; Baker, J. L.; Belancic, A.; Busetto, L.; Dicker, D.; Fabryova, L.; Fruhbeck, G.; Goossens, G. H.; Gordon, J.; Monami, M.; Sbraccia, P.; Martinez Tellez, B.; Yumuk, V.; McGowan, B.

2026-04-24 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.04.19.26351196 medRxiv
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This updated systematic review and network meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy and safety of obesity management medications (OMMs) in terms of reducing body weight and obesity related complications. Medline and Embase were searched up to 21 November 2025 for randomized controlled trials comparing OMMs versus placebo or active comparators in adults. The primary endpoint was percentage total body weight loss (TBWL%) at the end of the study. Secondary endpoints were TBWL% at 1, 2 and 3 years, anthropometric, metabolic, mental health and quality of life outcomes, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, remission of obesity related complications, serious adverse events and all cause mortality. Sixty six RCTs (66 comparisons) were identified: orlistat (22), semaglutide (18), liraglutide (11), tirzepatide (8), naltrexone/bupropion (5) and phentermine/topiramate (2), enrolling 63,909 patients (34,861 and 29,048 with active compound and placebo, respectively). All OMMs showed significantly greater TBWL% versus placebo; tirzepatide and semaglutide exceeded 10% TBWL and showed the most favourable glycaemic effects. Semaglutide reduced major adverse cardiovascular events and all cause mortality. In dedicated complication specific trials, semaglutide and tirzepatide showed benefit on heart failure related outcomes; tirzepatide was associated with improved obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome and semaglutide with knee osteoarthritis pain remission. Tirzepatide and semaglutide were associated with improvements in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis remission, and semaglutide with improvement in liver fibrosis. No OMMs were associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events. These updated results reinforce the need to individualize OMMs selection according to weight loss efficacy, complication profile and safety.

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Why Patients Choose Spiritual Healers, Alternative Medicine, and Unqualified Practitioners Before Formal Medical Care: An Exploratory Mixed Methods Study in Peri-Urban and Rural Faisalabad, Pakistan

Hamid, S.; Muneez, M.; Saleem, S.

2026-04-24 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351601 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background Before obtaining professional medical care, many people in peri-urban and rural Pakistan contact herbalists, spiritual healers, and unlicensed caregivers. This study examined the social, economic, and cultural factors influencing the use of informal care by analysing the health-seeking behaviours of individuals in the Faisalabad District. Methods An exploratory mixed-methods study was conducted in Makkuana and the surrounding villages of Faisalabad District, Punjab. The quantitative component involved a cross-sectional survey of 69 adults using a structured questionnaire adapted from the I-CAM-Q. The qualitative component comprised twelve in-depth interviews and two focus group discussions. Descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis were used for quantitative data. Thematic analysis, guided by the Health Belief Model and Andersen's Behavioural Model, was applied to qualitative data. Results The mean age of participants was 40.4 years; 62.3% were female, and 79.7% had monthly household incomes below PKR 60,000. Of the 69 participants, 68 (98.6%) sought care from an informal provider first, most commonly an unqualified practitioner (50.7%), herbal practitioner (29.0%), or homeopath (17.4%). Trust was the leading reason for provider choice (43.5%), followed by proximity (24.6%) and low cost (15.9%). Complications were reported by 21.7% of participants, and 39.1% later required formal care for the same illness. Eight qualitative themes emerged: structural and economic barriers to formal care; proximity and convenience as determinants of informal care; trust, familiarity, and social networks; cultural and religious normalisation of traditional practices; poor doctor-patient communication in formal settings; perceived safety and naturalness of alternative remedies; awareness deficits about provider qualifications; and treatment-related harm and delayed escalation to formal care. Conclusion Informal health care seeking is nearly universal in this community, driven by intersecting economic, structural, cultural, and interpersonal factors. Enhancing primary care affordability, accessibility, and the quality of provider-patient communication together with culturally sensitive health literacy programs, is essential to redirect care seeking toward qualified providers.